Weekly Technical Strategist: USDJPY

USDJPY: Still Highlighting The 93.08 level and Beyond.

USDJPY- While USDJPY failed to push further lower on Thursday and Friday, it managed to close lower for the week following through on its previous week losses. This development continues to suggest that the mentioned declines should target the 93.08 level, its July 22’09 low and then ultimately its YTD low at 91.73. Its weekly RSI haS turned lower suggesting further downside losses. However, if a follow through on its Friday lower level rejection candle occurs, resistance will start at the 95.87 level which is the location of its July 30’09 high with a clearance of there turning focus to the 97.77 level, its Aug 07’09 high. On the whole, having lost upside momentum at the 97.77 level and collapsed through its broken channel, risk remains for further weakness to be seen.

Directional Bias:
Nearer Term –Bearish
Short Term –Mixed
Medium Term –Mixed

Performance in %:
Past Week: -2.71%
Past Month: -3.60%
Past Quarter: +9.53%
Year To Date: +4.64%

Weekly Range:
High -95.28
Low -93.42

Weekly Technical Strategist: GBPUSD

GBPUSD: Closes Slightly Higher, Holds Below Broken MT Rising Trendline.

GBPUSD- Although a halt in price saw the pair turning slightly higher off the 1.6273 level to close at 1.6501 the past week, it continues to trade below its broken MT rising trendline support. Un less we see a climb back above the mentioned trendline, risk remains lower and leaves the pair targeting lower level prices towards the 1.6196 level, its weekly ema followed by the 1.6034 level, its July 13’09 low and then its July 08’09 low at 1.5984. Its weekly RSI remains supportive of this view. To the topside, halting its current weakness will pave the way for a challenge initially on the 1.6742 level, its July 30’09 high with a turn above there exposing the 1.7000 level ahead of the 1.7041 level, its Aug 05’09 high. Beyond there will invalidate and resume its medium term uptrend towards the 1.7100 level and subsequently the 1.7200 level. On the whole, although its broader medium term trend still remains higher, nearer term declines triggered off the 1.7041 level remains in force.

Directional Bias:
Nearer Term -Mixed
Short Term –Mixed
Medium Term –Bullish

Performance in %:
Past Week:: -0.85%
past Month: +1.79%
Past Quarter: +14.74%
Year To Date:: +13.06%

Weekly Range:
High -1.6622
Low -1.6273

Weekly Technical Strategist

EURUSD: Switches Focus To The 1.4446 Level

EURUSD- With a reversal of most of its losses off the 1.4444 level, its Aug 03’09 high seen the past week, risk for more upside gains targeting that level continues to be envisaged. Beyond that level will put the pair in position to head further higher towards the 1.4719 level, its Dec 18’08 high and possibly higher towards the 1.4875 level, representing its Sept 21’09 high. Both its weekly and daily RSI have turned higher suggesting further upside strength. Immediate support lies at the 1.4326 level, its Aug 13’09 high ahead of the 1.4044 level, marking its Aug 17’09 low with a turn below there creating further downside pressure towards its MT rising trendline at 1.3968. Decisively invalidating that level will mean additional losses towards the 1.3747 level, its Jun 16’09 low. On the whole, having reversed almost all of its declines off the 1.4446 level, EUR now looks to target further higher level prices and possibly resume its MT uptrend.

Directional Bias:
Nearer Term –Bullish
Short Term – Bullish
Medium Term –Bullish

Performance in %:
Past Week: +0.14%
Past Month: -0.83%
Past Quarter: +5.89%
Year To Date: +1.65%

Weekly Range:
High -1.4776
Low -1.4207

Daily Technical Strategist: EURUSD

EURUSD: Keeping Focus On The 1.4326 Level

EURUSD- With the recovery triggered off the 1.4068 level still continuing, EUR remains pressured to the upside towards the 1.4326 level, its Aug 13’09 high where a decisive invalidation if seen will put the pair in position to target its YTD high residing at 1.4446. Above there will be required to trigger the resumption of its medium term uptrend towards the 1.4719 level, its Dec 18’08 high. Its daily studies which have turned higher remain supportive of this view. Supports starts at the 1.4171 level, its Aug 18’09 high ahead of the 1.4000 level, its psycho level with a turn below there bringing more downside towards its MT rising trendline currently at 1.3951. EUR continues to maintain its medium term uptrend though undergoing corrections. On the whole, EUR will have to break and hold above the 1.4326 level to signal a return to the 1.4446 level and beyond.

Support Comments
1.4171 Aug 18’09 high
1.4006/00 July 29’09 low/psycho level
1.3850 MT rising trendline

Resistance Comments
1.4339 Jun 03’09 highs
1.4719 Dec 18’08 high
1.4865 Sept 2009 high

Daily Technical Strategist: EURUSD

EURUSD: Still Keeping Eyes On Lower Prices

EURUSD- While a second-day of higher closes was seen Wednesday pushing the pair to as high as 1.4266, a decisive close above the 1.4326 level, its Aug 13’09 high must occur to reverse its current downside pressure. If this plays out, its YTD high residing at 1.4446 level will be targeted ahead of the 1.4719 level, its Dec 18’08 high. Its daily studies which have turned higher remains supportive of this view. Supports starts at the 1.4171 level, its Aug 18’09 high ahead of the 1.4000 level, its psycho level with a turn below there bringing more downside towards its MT rising trendline currently at 1.3951. EUR continues to maintain its medium term uptrend though undergoing corrections. On the whole, EUR will have to break and hold above the 1.4326 level to signal a return to the 1.4446 level and beyond.

Support Comments
1.4171 Aug 18’09 high
1.4006/00 July 29’09 low/psycho level
1.3850 MT rising trendline

Resistance Comments
1.4339 Jun 03’09 highs
1.4719 Dec 18’08 high
1.4865 Sept 2009 high

Daily Technical Strategist: GBPUSD

GBPUSD: Trades Below Its Broken MT Rising Trendline

GBPUSD- A decisive break below its MT rising trendline on Monday has opened up further downside pressure for GBP. Although seen correcting in early trading today, as long as GBP holds below the said trendline odds are for further downside prices with the 1.6196 level, its weekly ema coming in as the initial support. Below that level will push the pair towards the 1.6034 level, its July 13’09 low and then its July 08’09 low at 1.5984. Its daily and weekly RSI remains supportive of this view as they are now negative and pointing lower. On the other hand, in case of further recovery, its break out point at the 1.6455 level will be aimed at with a clearance of there pushing it further higher towards the 1.6742 level, its July 30’09 high before the 1.7000 level and then the 1.7041 level, its Aug 05’09 high. Overall, with a loss of its MT rising trendline seen, risk of more declines are now expected.

Support Comments
1.6196 weekly ema
1.6034 July 13’09
1.5984 July 08’09 low

Resistance Comments
1.6455 Breakout Point
1.6584 July 23’09 high
1.6742 Jun 30’09 high

Weekly Technical Strategist: USDJPY

USDJPY: Turns Back Into Its Declining Channel.

USDJPY- With the reversal of its previous week gains and a return back into its broken falling trendline, USDJPY has now cleared the way for further run at the downside targeting its July 29’09 low at 94.00. Convincingly invalidating that level will put the pair in position to weaken further towards the 93.08 level, its July 22’09 low and then ultimately its YTD low at 91.73. Both its daily and weekly RSI have turned lower suggesting further downside losses. Resistance starts at the 95.87 level which is the location of its July 30’09 high with a clearance of there turning focus to the 97.77 level, its Aug 07’09 high. On the whole, having lost upside momentum at the 97.77 level and collapsed through its broken channel, risk remains for further weakness to be seen.

Directional Bias:
Nearer Term –Bearish
Short Term –Mixed
Medium Term –Mixed

Performance in %:
Past Week: -2.71%
Past Month: -3.60%
Past Quarter: +9.53%
Year To Date: +4.64%

Weekly Range:
High -97.49
Low -94.42

Weekly Technical Strategist: GBPUSD

GBPUSD: Follows Through Lower, Targets MT Rising Trendline.

GBPUSD- Although a halt in price saw the pair recovering slightly higher towards the end of last week, GBP still ended the week on the negative side following through lower on its previous week shooting star candle triggered weakness. Our bias remains lower nearer term based on its current price action and a retarget of its MT rising trendline should now be expected. Immediate support lies at its MT trendline currently at 1.6431 with a break of that level accelerating further downside gains towards the 1.6196 level, its weekly ema followed by the 1.6034 level, its July 13’09 low and its July 08’09 low at 1.5984. Its weekly RSI remains supportive of this view as it is negative and pointing lower. To the topside, halting its current weakness will pave the way for a challenge initially on the 1.6742 level, its July 30’09 high with a turn above there exposing the 1.7000 level ahead of the 1.7041 level, its Aug 05’09 high where a clean invalidation will resume its medium term uptrend towards the 1.7100 level and subsequently the 1.7200 level. On the whole, although its broader medium term trend still remains higher, its current weakness has activated corrective pullbacks of that trend and looks to further downside.

Directional Bias:
Nearer Term -Bearish
Short Term –Mixed
Medium Term –Bullish

Performance in %:
Past Week:: -0.85%
past Month: +1.79%
Past Quarter: +14.74%
Year To Date:: +13.06%

Weekly Range:
High -1.6716
Low -1.6389

Weekly Technical Strategist: EURUSD

EURUSD: Closes On A High Wave Candle, Holds Above MT Rising Trendline.

EURUSD- While a loss of momentum at the 1.4444 level, its Aug 03’09 high saw EUR producing a shooting star candle and driving the pair to a low of 1.4085 on Wednesday, its inability to clearly hold on to those losses saw it forming a high-wave candle(signs of confusion) the past week. With that said, as long as the pair continues to hesitate above its MT rising trendline drawn off the 1.2456 level, EUR has its eyes on the resumption of its medium term uptrend with initial resistance located at the 1.4326 level, its Aug 13’09 high. Above there will clear the way for a run at the 1.4444 level, marking its Aug 03’09 high where a break will resume its MT uptrend towards the 1.4719 level, its Dec 18’08 high and possibly higher. On the other hand, its Aug 12’09 high will come as the next support with a turn below there pushing the pair further lower towards the 1.4006 level, its July 29’09 low. Beneath there will allow the pair to target the 1.3826 level where its MT rising trendline is located. On the whole, with hesitation seen above its MT rising trendline, EUR could preparing to head back up.

Directional Bias:
Nearer Term –Mixed
Short Term – Mixed
Medium Term –Bullish

Performance in %:
Past Week: +0.14%
Past Month: -0.83%
Past Quarter: +5.89%
Year To Date: +1.66%

Weekly Range:
High -1.4326
Low -1.4085

USDJPY: Cuts Back Into Its Declining Channel, Aims At The 94.35 Level

USDJPY: With the pair failing to hold above its broken falling trendline, a cut back into the mentioned channel was seen on Thursday and a follow through lower continued in early morning trading today. The current price action now leaves further downside moves towards the 94.35 level, its Aug 04’09 low followed by the 93.08 level, its July 22’09 low. Below there will aim at the 92.70 level, its July 14’09 low and then the 91.73 level with a clearance of the latter bringing more declines towards its psycho support at 90.00 level. Its daily studies have turned lower suggesting further downside losses. On the upside, its channel resistance presently at 95.74 will be targeted at first if corrective upside occurs followed by the 96.97 level, its July’09 high and then the 97.40 level, its declining channel resistance where a cap is expected. Above there if seen will expose the 98.88 level, its Jun 05’09 high. On the whole, with a turn back into its declining channel and continued weakness seen, USDJPY looks to head further lower.